The paper price trend has changed drastically in 2018. What is the room for falling prices in April?

After the Spring Festival in 2018, large-scale paper companies have made three price adjustments, with an overall range of 400-500 yuan / ton. However, the price of corrugated paper for small and medium-sized paper enterprises has started to fall since mid to late March. The trend of the corrugated cardboard market in 2018 is significantly different from that in 2017. What's the difference?

The trend of corrugated boxboard paper market in 2018 is obviously different from last year. What is the difference?

After the Spring Festival in 2018, large-scale paper companies raised the price of corrugated paper and cardboard paper three times in a row, a total of 400-500 yuan / ton. In addition to tightening the waste policy, employees in the corrugated board and board market generally hold a bullish attitude towards the market.

However, due to the lack of overall downstream demand, the price of corrugated paper and boxboard paper, the main raw material of used yellowboard paper, fluctuated frequently in the middle and late March. Down trend. Corrugated paper prices of small and medium-sized paper enterprises in some areas have also been loosened by around RMB 100 / ton.

Looking back at the price of corrugated paper and cardboard in March 2017, there was a cliff-like decline. The paper price entered the upward channel in the middle and late April and continued to rise until September. The trend of the corrugated cardboard market in 2018 is significantly different from that in 2017. Mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1. The downtime of paper companies during the Spring Festival of 2018 is longer than last year. Affected by the significant increase in paper prices in the fourth quarter of 2016, some small and medium-sized paper enterprise production lines during the Spring Festival in 2017 did not arrange for shutdown and maintenance. The normal production schedule during the Spring Festival holiday caused a significant increase in the stock of paper enterprises after the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival holiday of 2018, small and medium-sized paper enterprise production lines generally arrange for shutdown and maintenance matters, and the downtime is longer. Most paper enterprise production lines are shut down for 15-20 days, and a few paper enterprises are down for more than 30 days.

2. The stocks of paper companies before and after the Spring Festival are controlled at low and medium levels. Due to the long downtime of most paper companies during the Spring Festival, the stock of corrugated and cardboard companies before and after the Spring Festival are at low and medium levels.

3. The inventory of downstream enterprises before and after the Spring Festival is kept at a reasonable level, and the phenomenon of blind purchases and large amounts of inventory are significantly reduced. Downstream cardboard factories only make up a small amount of stocks before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, they judge the market outlook more rationally and purchase on demand. Therefore, the inventory of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival is not high.

Changes in mentality: To cope with the phenomenon of skyrocketing and falling, downstream enterprises adopt the strategy of "acquiring with use"

The mentality of downstream enterprises to deal with the phenomenon of price hikes and declines in base paper has gradually become rational. Judging from the situation of downstream companies purchasing raw paper before and after the Spring Festival, the mentality of downstream companies in 2018 has changed significantly compared to 2017. Mainly because of the excessive reserve of raw paper by some downstream companies last year, the price of corrugated paper and cardboard during the peak season in the fourth quarter of last year did not rise but fell, causing downstream enterprises to mainly digest high-priced raw materials in the fourth quarter.

In order to avoid the above, downstream companies purchase more cautiously in 2018, especially during the low season of the first half of the year, with normal stocks as the mainstay, and some downstream companies adopt the strategy of picking and using.

Analysis: Although April is in the off-season of demand, there is little room for downside paper prices

The purchasing mentality of downstream enterprises tends to be rational, and they no longer reserve large amounts of base paper stocks. In addition, April is in the off-season of demand, so the price of corrugated paper and cardboard in April is under downward pressure. However, since the price of raw material waste paper continued to be at a medium-high level in 2018, there was little room for downward price of corrugated paper and cardboard in April.