Source: Network
On December 12, when another wave of shopping carnivals led by Taobao Jingdong came, the paper market ushered in a wave of paper mills' price increase letters. Although the momentum is huge, but at this moment, the price increase letter is very incomparable. The market has mixed feedback on this. At present, domestic demand is insufficient and external demand is weakening, and the actual transaction price of the market is gradually lower. The paper mills have done a good job of boosting the market. However, this time the price hike, in the end is the paper factory inventory pressure is reduced, raw material prices rise, or borrowed from the previous period to reduce production, the trend of public opinion pull back, recalling market sentiment, really not so good.
Since the end of November, the three giants of Yanlong, Shanying and Rongcheng have collectively raised the price of paper. Up to now, there have been nearly 30 price increase notices involving corrugated paper, whiteboard paper and tube paper, which affect Jiangsu and Shandong. Henan, Zhejiang, Hebei, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hubei, Jilin, Anhui 10 provinces. The increase of 50-200/ton has added 23 paper mills to issue price increases. Obviously, the manufacturer's support is still very strong.
Since the second half of this year, the market has continued to slump, and the negative impact of the Sino-US trade war on paper consumption has gradually manifested. The pulp futures, which had been brewing for six years before the market, plunged all the way, and the domestic and international markets are clearly deteriorating. However, this wave of price increases has made the already cold market a bit more subtle. In recent years, the frequency of fluctuations in the paper market has accelerated, and the market will continue to deteriorate. Or it has reached the bottom. Or is there a signal of a rebound? Especially for many paper traders and printing and packaging companies, should this be a time to reduce the library, or is it ready to enter the bottom?
Some senior big coffee also appeared to share their opinions and wonderful comments. The following excerpts are some wonderful ideas for everyone to share.
------- From June of this year, as a consultant for some friends who make paper. I suggest that they start selling at 678. The main reason is: 6789, the last time period for everyone to pick up the goods to the United States. Unfortunately, many friends have replenished their inventory in September. Their reason is that every year, the fourth quarter is the peak season.
------- From the current external environment, the overall international and domestic economic situation is not very optimistic. There is still no clear conclusion on the US tariff levies on China, and other major foreign markets are not very optimistic. The prices of exports from various factories have been at a low level. Not willing to export a lot. Until this month, exports and domestic prices began to approach. I believe there will be some improvement.
------- This round of decline is the first white card, copper plate follow-up, double glue continues, copying also follow up. The decline was large and fast, and it fell by 1000 in almost two months. Basically, the main varieties did not escape. Explain that this is a holistic decline, which is consistent with the economic situation. When a friend asked me if the price of paper fell, where will it stop, when will the pulp fall? At that time, I suggested to them to observe the inventory of the paper mill. If you don’t know the stock, then see when the paper mill stops. Notice. If it is an abnormal shutdown, there are only two reasons, either the inventory is too high, or it is below the cost line. By the time of December, these two conditions are basically in line.
------- The domestic economic situation, the economy in the fourth quarter is not good, resulting in poor demand. The paper mill is unprofitable, stocks are rising, and only one road is shut down. Unless the price of pulp falls. At present, several major factories are in the process of stopping. Even so, stocks are still rising. Because everyone is not willing to buy goods, Curry's price of 1000 yuan has not yet found a direction, manufacturers have no clear compensation plan, I think this month mainly to do this thing. Take the double-adhesive paper factory as an example, the double-adhesive paper factories go hand in hand, and there is no main pulp mill. The cost of the paper mill is almost reached the limit. If there is a decline of 100 US dollars of pulp, then it will see the bottom in January, but at the end I personally think it is a staged bottom. If the Sino-US relationship does not improve significantly, the rebound is shipping. The best time, it is possible to double bottom, return to the state of 14, 15 years.
------ Whether you are a company with more people or fewer people, you can keep your key customers. Non-key customers will go to the right hand with their left hand. Don't stock up for customers who might want to take it. Because every month is likely to fall. Unless you and the downstream customers lock in the price, it is a loss, it is painful to lose a part of the customer, but it is better than losing money.
------ Even if there is a major breakthrough in Sino-US relations, I don’t think it will be difficult to slow down for half a year. Let’s prepare for the winter.
Editor in charge: Zheng
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